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Has anyone read any good books on decision making? There are several on Amazon. Any books not recommended would be helpful too..

Some advice

Decision-Making
-Smart Choices by John S. Hammond et al•The Path of Least Resistance by Robert Fritz -Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows•Learning from the Future by Liam Fahey & Robert -Randall •Ethics for the Real World by Ronald Howard & Clinton Korver

Decision-Making

Smart Choices by John S. Hammond et al•The Path of Least Resistance by Robert Fritz •

Thinking in Systems by Donella Meadows•Learning from the Future by Liam Fahey & Robert


Randall •Ethics for the Real World by Ronald Howard & Clinton Korver

The best advice I was ever given about decision making did not come from a book:

To get a "gut reaction" to something that you yourself believe you're "in two minds" about, toss a coin, heads one way, tales another. If all things are truly equal, you'll be happy to go with the decision indicated by the fall of the coin, and it will be a physical relief to have made a decision, ANY decision. As long as you then follow that decision to its logical conclusion singlemindedly, it will be the right one, both rationally AND emotionally.

If you have an immediate "oh no" reaction to the way the coin has fallen, straight away you'll know you want to do the opposite to the way the coin has fallen. So go with your gut...it's only a coin!

BTW, you only ever toss the coin ONCE per decision ;-)

Hi Mark T.,
A simple technique I've used in the past is a decision tree:
http://www.decision-making-confidence.com/decision-trees-examples.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decision_tree

I've used a decision matrix in the past too:
http://www.business-analysis-made-easy.com/Example-Of-A-Decision-Matrix.html

I've also used something where you list your choices down the side and then choose between the pairs (a vs. b, then c vs. d, then winner of a/b vs. c/d etc.). I can't recall what it's called though.

But little b's right, the coin method is awesome.

This is a good book, but it's expensive - more about how people make decisions than *how to* make good decisions:
http://www.amazon.com/Psychology-Judgment-Decision-Making/dp/0070504776/ref=sr_1_5?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1262261897&sr=1-5

This one's more practical and the one that I would recommend.:
http://www.amazon.com/Rational-Choice-Uncertain-World-Psychology/dp/1412959039/ref=cm_cr_pr_sims_i

Books that I wouldn't really recommend that are popular these days are Thaler's Nudge and Dan Ariely's Predictably Irrational. They're both entertaining, but that's about it (something you'd take out of the library but wouldn't keep as a resource in your own library). You can likely get the gist of them from the Amazon reviews without having to read them.

Thanks for the ideas. I want to explore the coin method (also recommended by Mark Forster as a decision making training device). I also want to explore that http://www.decision-making-confidence.com website.

Jacqueline

Thanks for the references. I found 'The psychology of judgement and decision making' and enjoy it.
Now I know that: If I make a Pro-list followed by a Contra-list, my decision will be biassed to Pro (primacy). Unless I intoduce a pause in between the two listings, where then Contra becomes favored (recency).

To what end do you want a book? If it is for academic theoretical reasons, OK. If it is for you own decisions. No decision should require much more the 24 hours.

Do a quick pros and cons, so you can tell yourself you "thought about it".

Sleep on it.

Then do what your gut says.

If you don't like what your gut says, flip a coin.

If you don't like what the coin says, do the opposite and move on.

If that is Mark's coin method, then he's right.

"Smart Choices" is a very, very good book. You can take a look at it at google books. There is almost half of book, maybe more. Chapters 7 & 8 could be better, IMHO, but overall book is very good.

"Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions" by Gary Klein
It is interesting as it looks at the use and importance of intuition in decision making. Rational choice methods are best as a fall back method for situations where we lack the expertise.
As the book is based on large scale interviews and observation, I see it as more than just a one man's idea book.

The following are some of Mark Forster's ideas on decision making. His ideas are brilliant and I think they address one of my challenges- trying too hard to make the "right decision". This is a form of perfectionism that can lead to procrastination and ineffectiveness.

"Overcoming Procrastination Over Decisions
DateThursday, June 19, 2008 at 17:09
This is the reply I sent to someone who wrote to me saying they had a problem with making even simple decisions:

Making decisions is a behaviour which can be learned, just like any other behaviour. You can train yourself to make big decisions by practising making small decisions.

Before you do that, a couple of principles:

1. There are no right or wrong decisions, only decisions with different consequences. You need to train yourself to stop looking for the perfect decision. Instead your attitude needs to be that you take decisions and deal with the consequences.

2. Doing nothing is a decision in itself. You need to train yourself to think that the choice is not between A and B, but between A, B and C where C is doing nothing.

So train yourself starting with small things. For example, what are you going to eat for supper tonight? Remember the choice is between a) having something for supper and b) having nothing for supper. How are you going to decide which to have? I suggest you flip a coin. That helps you to realise 1) there is no “correct” choice; 2) that doing nothing is a choice like any other and has consequences like any other.

If the “something for supper” choice comes up, then how do you decide what to eat? Again I suggest you decide entirely at random. Flip a coin, throw dice, whatever. What you are training yourself in here is again that there is no “correct” choice.

When you’ve got used to making simple decisions at random, then you can try a slight variation on this. Flip a coin and stick with the answer unless you really want to overrule it. That helps you to identify your own preferences in the matter.

Remember, the aim of this is to practice making decisions. Like any practice it takes a lot of repetition before the behavior becomes learned. So don’t just do it once or twice and then forget about it. Consciously look out for small decisions you can make during the day and do it often."

I found exciting story about procrastination.

Here's link: http://cubicleconspiracy.typepad.com/

there was a great book I found a few years ago, with title something like:

28 essential steps to decision making
not sure of number, 17, 24.. something like that
unfortunately, I cannot find it online, and my copy is lost in storage
but if can find it, was great - meanwhile I'll look for it more online

PS, the first step, was the 800 pound gorilla in the corner

as in, the danger with careful, long, pro/con lists, with rankings and such, is they can just ignore what might be the most obvious reason for something

Vp, you don't need to pretend you "found" your own website to trick people into going.

khad: Yes, pointed this out to him in one of the other threads where he spammed the link. He still claims he found it, even though it the whole page was created like two hours before he posted the link. I'd also be interested how he knows it's an interesting story since only part 1 was published, which hasn't gotten anywhere so far.

Ken Watanabe's book "Problem Solving 101" is good (can be found from Amazon)

-Cc

I have read many books on decision-making, and the one that has helped me the most, by far, in dealing with the psychological issues is called A Practical Guide for Making Decisions, by Daniel D. Wheeler and Irving L. Janis (The Free Press, New York, 1980). It is better than the ones mentioned above in the time spent on the early stages (accepting the challenge to decide rather than avoiding it) and the latest stages (choosing to stay with a decision (or not) when there are setbacks), including dealing with the feelings of regret when things don't go well. The book presents a less mathematical, more intuitive way of assessing pros and cons by describing a balance sheet that includes not only the concrete gains and losses, but equally important, the consequences for one's own self-approval and for the approval of important others.

The book is very well written and easy to follow, even though it was written by two expert psychologists, including one of the giants of the field: Irving Janis. Compared to Smart Choices, it covers more issues and presents a more realistic and practical framework for making the decision and following through.

I am going on at length because this book needs more recognition. It is out of print (though used copies are available on Amazon), and i only discovered it while browsing in my public library It is one of the most helpful advice books I have ever read.

Couldn't find that one, "Crucial Decisions" by Janis.

<<Janis urges "vigilant problem solving," which includes (1) carefully specifying the problem and tentative solutions; (2) adequate information to search for solutions; (3) reformulating solutions in light of more and better alternatives; and (4) evaluating and selecting the best solution. Janis details this problem-solving process. Sociologists, psychologists, business faculty, and decision makers can benefit from this carefully written, informative book. It ranks among the best on the topic.>>

Same thing?

Alan,

Irving Janis wrote several books, of which the most famous was Groupthink (he was the scientist who discovered the idea and coined the term). The research that underlay the popular book that I mentioned, A Practical Guide for Making Decisions, was presented a few years earlier in a major academic work, Decision Making. It is in the latter that he discusses the idea you quote, of the vigilant problem solver. This type is presented as the ideal type of decision-maker, in contrast to the ways decisions are often made in real life, especially in stressful circumstances. Janis' main concern in Decision Making is exploring the psychology of decision-making under stress and how it can be improved; some of the suggestions he makes (such as the balance-sheet) are also presented in A Practical Guide, though there is much in the latter that is not derived from the former. Although A Practical Guide is based on Decision Making, it is more comprehensive and useful for those seeking helpful advice. I can't speak about the several books dealing with group decision-making (including Crucial Decisions) since I haven't read them.